Violent Crime Dropped in 2023 Despite Trump Saying Crime ‘Through the Roof’

Despite former President Donald Trump recently stating that crime is “through the roof,” violent crime dropped in 2023, according to FBI statistics released on Monday.
Overall, violent crime declined an estimated 3 percent in 2023 compared to 2022, the FBI report said, signaling a continued downward trend after the spike that occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic.
In addition, homicides and non-negligent manslaughter dropped by nearly 12 percent.
Violent crime has become a focal point in the 2024 presidential race, in which Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, is set to face off against Vice President Kamala Harris in November.
During the presidential debate between the two candidates earlier this month, Trump was fact-checked by ABC News moderator David Muir when Trump claimed that crime rates are “through the roof” but down in the rest of the world.
“President Trump, as you know, the FBI says that overall violent crime is actually coming down in this country,” Muir said, prompting Trump to claim that the FBI statistics are “defrauding statements.”
Newsweek reached out to the FBI and Trump’s campaign via email for comment.
Monday’s report comes after violent crime surged in the early years of the pandemic, with homicides jumping nearly 30 percent in 2020, marking the largest single-year increase since the FBI began tracking these statistics. Experts have cited a range of factors behind this rise, from economic stress to disruptions caused by the pandemic and escalating gun violence.
By 2022, however, crime levels had begun to stabilize. The FBI’s 2023 data shows that the violent crime rate fell from 377 incidents per 100,000 people in 2022 to 364 per 100,000 in 2023. This is close to pre-pandemic levels, indicating a potential return to relative normalcy, according to the FBI.
“Are we looking at crime rates at a return to pre-pandemic levels? I think a reasonable person would look at that and say, ‘Yes, that’s what has happened,'” Deputy Assistant Director Brian Griffith of the FBI’s Criminal Justice Information Services Division told the Associated Press.
According to Monday’s report, the largest U.S. cities—those with populations of at least one million—saw the most dramatic drop in violent crime, with a nearly 7 percent reduction. Meanwhile, mid-sized communities (populations between 250,000 and 499,999) experienced a slight uptick, with violent crime increasing by 0.3 percent.
Across the board, rapes were down more than 9 percent, and aggravated assaults dropped nearly 3 percent. However, motor vehicle theft spiked by almost 13 percent, reaching its highest rate since 2007.
Monday’s FBI report comes after the first three months of 2024 saw a “historic” drop in rates of violent crime and murder across the country, according to FBI statistics in June. However, some analysts who previously spoke to Newsweek say the numbers don’t tell the whole story.
Data released by the FBI in June showed violent crime incidents dropped 15 percent between January and March this year compared to the same period in 2023.
John Lott, the president of the nonprofit, right-leaning Crime Prevention Research Center who held a brief role in the Department of Justice under Trump, previously told Newsweek that the FBI statistics are incomplete at best.
“It’s just a small portion of the issue,” Lott said. “The reason why we have the National Crime Victimization Survey (an annual survey conducted by the DOJ) is because we know most crimes are not reported to police.”
However, Monday’s FBI report covers over 85 percent of law enforcement agencies in its Uniform Crime Reporting Program, but not all agencies participate. The 2023 report includes data from more than 16,000 agencies serving nearly 316 million people.
Meanwhile, the report’s findings align with research from the nonpartisan Council on Criminal Justice, which found that violent crime has dropped in most major cities. A review of 29 U.S. cities showed a 13 percent decrease in homicides during the first half of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.